[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT73 KNHC 131758
SPFAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

31.5N  80.0W      46  3  X  X 49   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X 13  4 17
36.0N  77.5W       X 24  3  X 27   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  7  7 14
40.5N  74.5W       X  1 14  2 17   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  5  8 13
MUHA 230N 824W     5  X  X  X  5   NANTUCKET MA       X  X  3  9 12
MYGF 266N 787W     2  X  X  X  2   HYANNIS MA         X  X  3  9 12
MARATHON FL       29  X  X  X 29   BOSTON MA          X  X  3 10 13
MIAMI FL          20  X  X  X 20   PORTLAND ME        X  X  1 11 12
W PALM BEACH FL   34  X  X  X 34   BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  X 10 10
FT PIERCE FL      55  X  X  X 55   EASTPORT ME        X  X  X  8  8
COCOA BEACH FL    63  X  X  X 63   ST JOHN NB         X  X  X  7  7
DAYTONA BEACH FL  63  X  X  X 63   MONCTON NB         X  X  X  5  5
JACKSONVILLE FL   49  X  X  X 49   YARMOUTH NS        X  X  X  7  7
SAVANNAH GA       35  6  X  X 41   HALIFAX NS         X  X  X  4  4
CHARLESTON SC     27 14  X  X 41   EDDY POINT NS      X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC   11 26  X  X 37   KEY WEST FL       99  X  X  X 99
WILMINGTON NC      3 29  X  X 32   MARCO ISLAND FL   88  X  X  X 88
MOREHEAD CITY NC   1 23  2  X 26   FT MYERS FL       84  X  X  X 84
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X 15  6  X 21   VENICE FL         77  X  X  X 77
NORFOLK VA         X 15  9  X 24   TAMPA FL          65  X  X  X 65
OCEAN CITY MD      X  5 15  X 20   CEDAR KEY FL      38  1  X  X 39
ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  2 15  1 18   ST MARKS FL        5  1  X  X  6

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM SAT TO  8PM SAT
C FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
D FROM  8AM SUN TO  8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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