[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 131151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI 13 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE CHARLEY CENTERED NEAR 24.3N 82.9W...OR 75 MILES WSW OF
KEY WEST...AT 13/1100 UTC MOVING NNW 16 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 969 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CHARLEY CONTINUES ITS STEADY GROWTH WITH
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE E OF THE CENTER WITH CIRRUS
SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER S FLORIDA.  RADAR FROM KEY WEST SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED EYE EMERGING INTO THE SE GULF WITH RADAR INDICATING
MID-LEVEL WINDS ABOVE 115 KT. SATELLITE SHOWS A MORE SYMMETRIC
STORM THAN 12 HOURS AGO WITH THE EYE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT AND
SLIGHTLY COLDER CLOUD TOPS. BAND OF TSTMS IS MOVING OVER S
FLORIDA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21W S OF
19N MOVING W 10 KT. 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. THE
WAVE HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A NEW
BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT.
NIGHT-VIS IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE COULD BE ALONG 41W. 1013
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. EFFECTS FROM THIS WAVE COULD
BEGIN SUN IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 55W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. SMALL
BEND IN THE WIND-FIELD DENOTES THE WAVE AS WELL AS AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 20N10W 13N18W 7N31W 9N 62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N 41W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
ANOTHER STRONG MID/UPPER TROF IS DIVING THRU THE MIDWEST INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH LOUISIANA... UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR
MID-AUGUST. IN FACT NEAR RECORD COLD IS OCCURRING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FROM ACROSS CENTRAL GA 26N90W TO 23N95W. THIS IS THE TROF
THAT IS PULLING CHARLEY FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND SENDING IT TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SQUALL LINE FROM THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
ACROSS S FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER AIR IS ACROSS THE NW GULF
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER RIDGING IN THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING OVER CUBA THIS MORNING AS DRIER
CONDITIONS PUSH FROM E TO W ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
TROF IS SKIRTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG
16N64W 21N63W AND IS SPREADING ONLY SMALL BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
FROM DOMINICA NWD TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO. GENERAL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC. WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N60W TO
11N67W WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. WETTER CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY MON WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC WAVE.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM A 1024
MB HIGH NEAR 32N31W SWWD TO A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N36W TO
24N50W. DEEP RIDGING EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W.
UPPER LOW IS NEAR 26N50W WITH TROUGH SW TO 20N54W.  ELSEWHERE...
UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 23N37W WITH PLENTY OF DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR
E OF 50W AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGING ALONG 17N CONTROLS THE AREA WITH LITTLE SHEAR AND
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW.  CONDITIONS GENERALLY LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WATER TEMPERATURE...
LIGHT SHEAR.. AND TWO HEALTHY WAVES IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


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