[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT73 KNHC 130853
SPFAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

29.8N  82.5W      35  4  X  X 39   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X 10 10
33.0N  81.0W       X 20  6  X 26   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  8  8
38.0N  78.5W       X  X 11  5 16   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  X  7  7
MUSN 216N 826W    12  X  X  X 12   NANTUCKET MA       X  X  X  6  6
MUHA 230N 824W    99  X  X  X 99   HYANNIS MA         X  X  X  6  6
MARATHON FL       52  X  X  X 52   BOSTON MA          X  X  X  7  7
MIAMI FL           9  X  X  X  9   PORTLAND ME        X  X  X  6  6
W PALM BEACH FL    7  1  X  X  8   BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  X  3  3
FT PIERCE FL      11  2  X  X 13   EASTPORT ME        X  X  X  2  2
COCOA BEACH FL    16  4  X  X 20   KEY WEST FL       91  X  X  X 91
DAYTONA BEACH FL  21  6  X  X 27   MARCO ISLAND FL   53  X  X  X 53
JACKSONVILLE FL   19 12  X  X 31   FT MYERS FL       50  X  X  X 50
SAVANNAH GA        2 23  2  X 27   VENICE FL         55  X  X  X 55
CHARLESTON SC      X 15  8  X 23   TAMPA FL          47  X  X  X 47
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  5 13  X 18   CEDAR KEY FL      43  1  X  X 44
WILMINGTON NC      X  1 12  1 14   ST MARKS FL       30  4  X  X 34
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  9  2 11   APALACHICOLA FL   25  3  X  X 28
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  6  4 10   PANAMA CITY FL    15  5  X  X 20
NORFOLK VA         X  X  6  7 13   PENSACOLA FL       1  2  X  X  3
OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  2 10 12   GULF 29N 85W      29  1  X  X 30
ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  1 10 11   GULF 29N 87W       2  1  X  X  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT
C FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
D FROM  2AM SUN TO  2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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