[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 130554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI 13 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE CHARLEY CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W...OR 14 MILES W OF
HAVANA...AT 13/0600 UTC MOVING NNW 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS 973 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CHARLEY CONTINUES ITS STEADY GROWTH WITH
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE E OF THE CENTER WITH CIRRUS
SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER S FLORIDA.  RADAR FROM KEY WEST SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED EYE EMERGING INTO THE SE GULF WITH RADAR INDICATING
MID-LEVEL WINDS ABOVE 115 KT.  A PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA
SHORTLY TO DETERMINE ANY CHANGES IN INTENSITY.  SATELLITE SHOWS
A MORE SYMMETRIC STORM THAN 12 HOURS AGO WITH THE EYE BECOMING
MORE DISTINCT AND SLIGHTLY COLDER CLOUD TOPS. BAND OF TSTMS WITH
WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE IS MOVING THRU S FLORIDA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20W S OF
19N MOVING W 10 KT.  1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N.
THE WAVE HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A
NEW BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W S OF 17N MOVING W 20 KT.
NIGHT-VIS IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE COULD BE ALONG 41W.
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ESPECIALLY W OF THE
WAVE.  IN ADDITION...A WEAK LOW COULD BE FORMING ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 9N.  THIS WAVE SHOULD BE ALONG 48W/49W NEAR 00Z/14TH AND
NEAR 55W AT 00Z/15TH.  EFFECTS FROM THIS WAVE COULD BEGIN SUN IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  THIS WAVE IS LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 54W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT.  SMALL
BEND IN THE WIND-FIELD DENOTES THE WAVE AS WELL AS AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS.  GFS INDICATES THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE FRI.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER S MEXICO IS W OF THE AREA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N18W 5N30W 6N50W...THEN ALONG 3N53W 8N67W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
ANOTHER STRONG MID/UPPER TROF IS DIVING THRU THE MIDWEST INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH LOUISIANA... UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR
MID-AUGUST. IN FACT NEAR RECORD COLD IS OCCURRING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FROM THE GA/AL BORDER SW TO 24N96W.  THIS IS THE TROF THAT
IS PULLING CHARLEY FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND SENDING IT TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.  SQUALL LINE FROM THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
ACROSS S FLORIDA.  MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER AIR IS ACROSS THE NW
GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER RIDGING IN THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER CUBA BY LATE MORNING AS
DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH FROM E TO W ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL TROF IS SKIRTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 16N64W 21N63W AND IS SPREADING ONLY SMALL BUT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FROM DOMINICA NWD TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO.
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC.  WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
16N60W TO 11N67W WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.  WETTER CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY MON WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC WAVE.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM A 1024
MB HIGH NEAR 33N29W SWWD TO 27N50W THEN TO A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
26N67W. DEEP RIDGING EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W.
UPPER LOW IS NEAR 26N50W WITH TROUGH SW TO 20N54W.  ELSEWHERE...
UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 23N37W WITH PLENTY OF DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR
E OF 50W AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGING ALONG 17N CONTROLS THE AREA WITH LITTLE SHEAR AND
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW.  CONDITIONS GENERALLY LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WATER TEMPERATURE...
LIGHT SHEAR.. AND TWO HEALTHY WAVES IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC.

$$
BLAKE


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