[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT73 KNHC 130235
SPFAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

26.8N  82.8W      47  3  X  X 50   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  1 13 14
31.0N  81.7W       X 29  2  X 31   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X 13 13
35.0N  79.4W       X  X 19  2 21   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X 12 12
MUCF 221N 805W    14  X  X  X 14   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  9  9
MUSN 216N 826W    99  X  X  X 99   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  X  8  8
MUHA 230N 824W    99  X  X  X 99   NANTUCKET MA       X  X  X  6  6
MYGF 266N 787W     1  2  1  X  4   HYANNIS MA         X  X  X  6  6
MARATHON FL       46  X  X  X 46   BOSTON MA          X  X  X  7  7
MIAMI FL          18  4  X  X 22   PORTLAND ME        X  X  X  5  5
W PALM BEACH FL   10 10  X  X 20   BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  X  2  2
FT PIERCE FL       8 17  X  X 25   KEY WEST FL       67  X  X  X 67
COCOA BEACH FL     5 24  X  X 29   MARCO ISLAND FL   48  1  X  X 49
DAYTONA BEACH FL   2 31  X  X 33   FT MYERS FL       45  2  X  X 47
JACKSONVILLE FL    X 31  1  X 32   VENICE FL         43  5  X  X 48
SAVANNAH GA        X 20  8  X 28   TAMPA FL          26 17  X  X 43
CHARLESTON SC      X  8 16  X 24   CEDAR KEY FL       6 31  X  X 37
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  2 19  X 21   ST MARKS FL        X 23  X  X 23
WILMINGTON NC      X  X 16  3 19   APALACHICOLA FL    1 14  X  X 15
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X 11  5 16   PANAMA CITY FL     X  8  X  X  8
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  5  9 14   GULF 29N 85W       3 14  X  X 17
NORFOLK VA         X  X  4 12 16

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM FRI TO  8AM SAT
C FROM  8AM SAT TO  8PM SAT
D FROM  8PM SAT TO  8PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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