[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT73 KNHC 122036
SPFAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  81.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

26.5N  83.0W      47  1  X  X 48   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X 17 17
30.5N  82.3W       X 30  1  X 31   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X 16 16
34.2N  80.0W       X  1 20  2 23   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X 12 12
MUCF 221N 805W    31  X  X  X 31   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  X 10 10
MUSN 216N 826W    99  X  X  X 99   NANTUCKET MA       X  X  X  7  7
MUHA 230N 824W    82  X  X  X 82   HYANNIS MA         X  X  X  8  8
MYGF 266N 787W     1  2  X  X  3   BOSTON MA          X  X  X  9  9
MARATHON FL       40  X  X  X 40   PORTLAND ME        X  X  X  6  6
MIAMI FL          16  2  X  X 18   BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  X  2  2
W PALM BEACH FL    9  7  X  X 16   KEY WEST FL       59  X  X  X 59
FT PIERCE FL       7 14  X  X 21   MARCO ISLAND FL   43  1  X  X 44
COCOA BEACH FL     5 20  X  X 25   FT MYERS FL       40  2  X  X 42
DAYTONA BEACH FL   1 28  X  X 29   VENICE FL         38  5  X  X 43
JACKSONVILLE FL    X 28  2  X 30   TAMPA FL          21 18  X  X 39
SAVANNAH GA        X 14 13  X 27   CEDAR KEY FL       5 30  X  X 35
CHARLESTON SC      X  4 20  X 24   ST MARKS FL        X 26  X  X 26
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  1 19  1 21   APALACHICOLA FL    1 19  X  X 20
WILMINGTON NC      X  X 15  4 19   PANAMA CITY FL     X 14  X  X 14
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  8  8 16   PENSACOLA FL       X  3  X  X  3
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  4 10 14   GULF 29N 85W       3 19  X  X 22
NORFOLK VA         X  X  2 15 17   GULF 29N 87W       X  3  X  X  3
OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  X 17 17

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM FRI TO  2AM SAT
C FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT
D FROM  2PM SAT TO  2PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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