[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTBW 121906
HLSTBW
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-122200-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE CHARLEY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
301 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...INTENSIFYING HURRICANE CHARLEY MAY BE A DANGEROUS THREAT TO THE
SUNCOAST FRIDAY...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED BY 5 PM TODAY...

...THE HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

  CHARLOTTE                        CITRUS
  DE SOTO                          HERNANDO
 HILLSBOROUGH                     LEE
  LEVY                             MANATEE
  PASCO                            PINELLAS
  SARASOTA


INCLUDING...
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANEE RIVER...
CHARLOTTE HARBOR...AND TAMPA BAY.

...STORM LOCATION...
AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4
NORTH...81.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTH OF TAMPA.  CHARLEY WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE AT AROUND THIS SPEED WHILE GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO 105 MPH...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM
MOVES OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF.  MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH CHARLEY EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THEN ACCELERATE...ALONG THE
SUNCOAST...THE THREAT OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SURGE IN THE
STORM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS GREAT.  CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE HIGHEST SURGE WILL OCCUR FROM THE COUNTIES NEAR TAMPA BAY SOUTH
TO LEE COUNTY.  THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SPEED...AND INTENSITY
SUGGEST STORM SURGES IN SOME AREAS EQUALLING OR EXCEEDING THOSE
EXPERIENCED IN HURRICANE DONNA IN 1960 AND THE 1944 HURRICANE EACH OF
WHICH MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF FORT MYERS...OR MORE LIKELY THE 1921
HURRICANE WHICH MADE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY.

THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SURGE SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR
LATER TODAY. FOR NOW...ALL COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE RUSHING TO
COMPLETION ANY LAST MINUTE PREPARATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SINCE A
WARNING WILL ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

IN SHORT...A SURGE OF 10 OR MORE FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM JUST AFTER LANDFALL.  FLOODING MAY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIME AND VALUE OF HIGH TIDES ON FRIDAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
AS IT APPROACHES THE SUNCOAST ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS IN THE INNER
EYEWALL PERHAPS AT LEAST 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  HOWEVER...NO
MATTER WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES...CURRENT FORECAST DATA SUGGEST
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH WILL AFFECT ALL AREAS
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BETWEEN FRIDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY EVENING.

DETAILS ON SPECIFIC DAMAGE IMPACTS WILL BE PROVIDED AFTER HURRICANE
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED AFTER 5 PM TODAY.

...RAINFALL...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN ALL AREAS...THESE
RAINS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS.
HOWEVER...IN AREAS NEAR TAMPA BAY WHERE SOME RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND
ALL RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH...MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
DURING AND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF CHARLEY.

FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS EAST
AND NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.  THIS WATCH IS LARGELY INDEPENDENT OF
HURRICANE CHARLEY AND RELATED TO TEH INTERACTION BETWEEN TROPICAL
STORM BONNIE...NOW DECAYING WHILE RACING TOWARD THE GEORGIA
COAST...AND DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A BUILDING RIDGE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST.

THERE IS A RISK OF TORNADOES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FROM
THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF CHARLEY...ESPECIALLY 50 MILES OR MORE AWAY
FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  TORNADOES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WELL EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA FORECAST
OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM TODAY.

&&

$$


GOLDSMITH


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