[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT33 KNHC 121742
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...CHARLEY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES TOWARD WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO
THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO ...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...INFORMATION FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND RADARS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES... 305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR JUST
EAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR  105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS  980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.  STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.  STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...20.4 N... 81.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


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