[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KEYW 121257
HLSEYW
FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-121600-

HURRICANE CHARLEY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
900 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO BEYOND
DRY TORTUGAS...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...

...MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR VISITORS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES HAS
BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR SPECIAL NEEDS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS
FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH KEY WEST...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
EVACUATION INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR VISITORS AND NON RESIDENTS FOR ALL OF THE
KEYS. A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR RECREATIONAL VEHICLES IN ALL THE
FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN ORDERED. IN ADDITION...AS OF 8 AM THIS
MORNING...THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME
AND SPECIAL NEEDS RESIDENTS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.
MONROE COUNTY HAS ACTIVATED THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IN
MARATHON. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE URGED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING TO COMPLETE PROTECTIVE
ACTIONS...INCLUDING SECURING YOUR HOUSE AND PROPERTY...AND OBTAINING
HURRICANE SUPPLIES. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR ANY
NOTICES FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

FOR THOSE NEEDING TRANSPORTATION FOR EVACUATION...GREYHOUND BUS
LINES WILL HAVE BUSES LEAVING KEY WEST AT 1130 AM...AND 545 PM
TODAY...AND WILL SCHEDULE EXTRA BUSES IF THERE IS A DEMAND. CONTACT
GREYHOUND IN KEY WEST FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON DEPARTURE TIMES AND
STATION LOCATIONS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS TO
BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE AFFECTS
OF HURRICANE CHARLEY.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS IN MONROE
COUNTY...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO BEYOND DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS IN MONROE
COUNTY...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA BAY. IN ADDITION...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
OCEAN REEF TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS
OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH AND STORM SURGE...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM
SURGE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION....
AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR
16 MPH...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE AT 951 PM THIS EVENING...AND 842 AM
FRIDAY MORNING AT KEY WEST HARBOR. HIGH TIDES AT VACA CUT IN
MARATHON WILL BE AT 840 PM THIS EVENING...AND 731 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED...BEGINNING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE WILL BE IN THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY
WEST. AS HURRICANE CHARLEY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST
OF THE LOWER KEYS...THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN...ATLANTIC SHORES OF THE KEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
KEYS AND KEY WEST.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...WINDS OVER THE KEYS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. ALONG THE REEF...AUTOMATED COASTAL STATIONS REPORTED SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS...NOT IN DIRECT ASSOCIATION WITH
HURRICANE CHARLEY...MAY BRING BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE
KEYS WATERS THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SPEEDS THIS MORNING...AND BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE LOWER KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST...EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACT...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD USE THE TIME THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON TO SECURE THEIR CRAFT...AND ARE ADVISED NOT TO LEAVE
PORT THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WHEN CONDITIONS OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACT...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY
LATE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS ACROSS THE LOWER
KEYS AND KEY WEST. ESPECIALLY IF STORM SURGE FLOODING PREVENTS
RAINWATER DRAINAGE. PEOPLE SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN OFF THE STREETS
BEGINNING LATER AND TONIGHT.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
EVEN THOUGH HURRICANE CHARLEY IS NOT FORECAST TO MAKE DIRECT
LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS TIME...THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL
REMAIN VULNERABLE TO TORNADOES IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHARLEY. THE
FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF
CHARLEY...WHICH IS HIGHLY FAVORED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED
TORNADOES. SUBSEQUENTLY...THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR TORNADOES
IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF CHARLEY WHICH SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE
FLORIDA KEYS...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST...LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...LOCAL TRAFFIC IMPACTS...
THE NORTHBOUND 18 MILE STRETCH HAS BEEN REOPENED AFTER AN EARLIER
ACCIDENT. MOTORISTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTREME CAUTION UPON
EXITING THE KEYS THIS MORNING. YOU MAY ALSO USE CARD SOUND ROAD AS
AN ALTERNATE TO EXIT THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...PROBABILITIES...
THE CHANCE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL PASS WITHIN 75
MILES OF KEY WEST IS CURRENTLY 37 PERCENT...AND 30 PERCENT FOR
MARATHON.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE CHARLEY
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT.
$$

LK/JR/DAF











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