[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTAE 121208 CCA
HLSTLH
FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ750-755-770-775-121530-

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
807 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...BONNIE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND
COAST FROM DESTIN EAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE INLAND
COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: WALTON...HOLMES...
WASHINGTON...BAY...JACKSON...CALHOUN...GULF...GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...
LEON...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...MADISON...TAYLOR...DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM
DESTIN...EAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. SINCE BONNIE HAS WEAKENED AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS WERE
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS EARLIER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS HAVE ALREADY ENTERED THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE...AND WILL
REACH COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS MORNING.
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BONNIE
ACCELERATES NORTHEAST.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA. BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. THE CENTER OF
BONNIE IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AROUND
NOON TIME...WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED BETWEEN PANAMA CITY BEACH AND APALACHICOLA.
THE STORM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION...
IT WILL STILL HAVE TIME TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY
CONVECTION FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL...AS SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS EXIST IN MANY
AREAS DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS. AS BONNIE MOVES FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL GEORGIA...WIDESPREAD 4 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE ALREADY ENTERED THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING. AT 6 AM CDT...THE BUOY 95 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 47 KNOTS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER
THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
BONNIE ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA OR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES WITH THE LANDFALL OF THIS STORM.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH BONNIE NOW EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER AT LANDFALL...A REDUCED STORM SURGE OF 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE BAYS...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND PANAMA CITY IN
EAST BAY...ST. JOSEPH BAY BETWEEN PORT ST. JOE AND THE ST. JOSEPH PENINSULA...
AND IN APALACHICOLA BAY BETWEEN APALACHICOLA AND ST. GEORGE ISLAND. ALSO
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

THE LOCAL TIDES FOR THURSDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE AT 1221 PM...LOW TIDES AT 605 AM AND 751 PM.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDE AT 1203 PM...LOW TIDES AT 807 PM AND 949 PM.

SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY...
HIGH TIDE AT 751 AM...LOW TIDE AT 710 PM.

SEAS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 9 TO 11 FEET
TODAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF APALACHICOLA. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH
SURF ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT.

...RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE BEACHES.

WIND...WAVE...AND TIDAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY. RIP
CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE WATER.

ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL AND LOCAL OFFICIALS. BE ESPECIALLY
CAUTIOUS NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND UNGUARDED BEACHES. A RIP CURRENT IS A STRONG
NARROW CURRENT OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE BEACH THROUGH THE SURF ZONE. IT CAN
RAPIDLY CARRY A SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...
WADE SIDEWAYS PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL YOU ARE OUT OF ITS PULL.

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY NOON EDT (11 AM CDT).

$$

WOOL/BOLINSKI

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