[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT73 KNHC 120852
SPFAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

23.3N  82.5W      48  1  X  X 49   NORFOLK VA         X  X  X 21 21
26.3N  83.0W       1 34  2  X 37   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  X 18 18
30.5N  82.0W       X  1 28  3 32   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  X 17 17
MKJS 185N 779W    29  X  X  X 29   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X 13 13
MWCG 193N 814W    69  X  X  X 69   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  7  7
MUCF 221N 805W    42  X  X  X 42   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  X  5  5
MUSN 216N 826W    59  X  X  X 59   NANTUCKET MA       X  X  X  2  2
MUHA 230N 824W    51  1  X  X 52   HYANNIS MA         X  X  X  3  3
MUAN 219N 850W    11  4  X  X 15   BOSTON MA          X  X  X  3  3
MYGF 266N 787W     X  3  2  1  6   PORTLAND ME        X  X  X  2  2
MARATHON FL       16 13  X  1 30   KEY WEST FL       26 11  X  X 37
MIAMI FL           2 16  2  1 21   MARCO ISLAND FL    2 29  2  X 33
W PALM BEACH FL    X 13  7  X 20   FT MYERS FL        1 29  4  X 34
FT PIERCE FL       X 12 10  1 23   VENICE FL          X 29  7  X 36
COCOA BEACH FL     X 10 16  X 26   TAMPA FL           X 21 15  X 36
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  5 24  1 30   CEDAR KEY FL       X  8 26  X 34
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  1 28  2 31   ST MARKS FL        X  1 25  1 27
SAVANNAH GA        X  X 20  9 29   APALACHICOLA FL    X  1 22  1 24
CHARLESTON SC      X  X 11 16 27   PANAMA CITY FL     X  1 16  1 18
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  4 21 25   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  4  2  6
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  1 21 22   MOBILE AL          X  X  1  1  2
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X 19 19   GULF 29N 85W       X  4 21  X 25
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X 17 17   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  7  1  8

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM FRI TO  2PM FRI
C FROM  2PM FRI TO  2AM SAT
D FROM  2AM SAT TO  2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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