[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT72 KNHC 120232
SPFAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  88.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

31.9N  83.6W      30  5  1  X 36   EASTPORT ME        X  X  X 10 10
36.5N  78.5W       X 14  5  X 19   ST JOHN NB         X  X  X  9  9
42.0N  73.5W       X  X 10  3 13   MONCTON NB         X  X  X  9  9
COCOA BEACH FL     1  2  X  X  3   YARMOUTH NS        X  X  X  8  8
DAYTONA BEACH FL   5  5  X  X 10   HALIFAX NS         X  X  X  6  6
JACKSONVILLE FL   13 11  X  X 24   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  X  X  3  3
SAVANNAH GA        7 19  X  X 26   SYDNEY NS          X  X  X  4  4
CHARLESTON SC      1 20  1  X 22   EDDY POINT NS      X  X  X  5  5
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X 18  2  X 20   PTX BASQUES NFLD   X  X  X  5  5
WILMINGTON NC      X 14  4  X 18   BURGEO NFLD        X  X  X  3  3
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  9  6  1 16   ILE ST PIERRE      X  X  X  2  2
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  5  9  X 14   VENICE FL          2  X  X  X  2
NORFOLK VA         X  6 11  X 17   TAMPA FL           6  2  X  X  8
OCEAN CITY MD      X  2 13  X 15   CEDAR KEY FL      21  3  X  X 24
ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  1 13  1 15   ST MARKS FL       43  X  X  X 43
NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X 12  2 14   APALACHICOLA FL   51  X  X  X 51
MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  8  4 12   PANAMA CITY FL    54  X  X  X 54
PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  6  6 12   PENSACOLA FL      31  X  X  X 31
NANTUCKET MA       X  X  4  7 11   MOBILE AL          5  X  X  X  5
HYANNIS MA         X  X  4  7 11   GULF 29N 85W      49  X  X  X 49
BOSTON MA          X  X  5  7 12   GULF 29N 87W      70  X  X  X 70
PORTLAND ME        X  X  3  9 12   GULF 28N 89W      99  X  X  X 99
BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  1 10 11

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7PM THU TO  7AM FRI
C FROM  7AM FRI TO  7PM FRI
D FROM  7PM FRI TO  7PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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