[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTAE 112124
HLSTLH
FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ750-755-770-775-120400-

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

...BONNIE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH THURSDAY MORNING...

...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG
BEND COAST FROM THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA BORDER EAST TO THE MOUTH OF
THE SUWANNEE RIVER...

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
WALTON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...BAY...JACKSON...CALHOUN...GULF...
GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...
MADISON...TAYLOR...DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
FROM THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA COASTAL BORDER...EAST TO THE MOUTH OF
THE SUWANNEE RIVER. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER INLAND
AREAS OF NORTH FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. BONNIE
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75
MPH OR GREATER BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THURSDAY MORNING.


...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.3 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF
BONNIE IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 9 AM CDT NEAR PANAMA CITY BEACH.
THE STORM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO AND
EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON THURSDAY. IN
MANY SPOTS THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND
COMBINED WITH THESE EXPECTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CREATE VERY HIGH SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. AS BONNIE MOVES FROM THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. STORM TOTALS
BY THURSDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS MUCH RAIN WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE SIZE OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH BEYOND 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE
CENTER. THEREFORE...ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN BONNIE'S TRACK COULD SHIFT
THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK. THEN HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTLINE THURSDAY MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES OF
THE PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND...WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS OVER
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN
THE BAYS...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND PANAMA CITY IN EAST BAY...NORTH
BAY...WEST BAY...AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ALSO ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

THE LOCAL TIDES FOR THURSDAY FOLLOW.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDES AT 142 AM AND 1221 PM...LOW TIDES AT 605 AM AND 751 PM.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDES AT 507 AM AND 1203 PM...LOW TIDES AT 807 PM AND 949 PM.

SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY...
HIGH TIDE AT 751 AM...LOW TIDE AT 710 PM.

SEAS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND REACH 12 TO 15 FEET BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG
BEND COAST. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

...RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A CURRENT MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE BEACHES. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE
BEACHES.

WIND...WAVE...AND TIDAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE
WATER.

ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL AND LOCAL OFFICIALS. BE
ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND UNGUARDED BEACHES. A
RIP CURRENT IS A STRONG NARROW CURRENT OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE
BEACH THROUGH THE SURF ZONE. IT CAN RAPIDLY CARRY A SWIMMER INTO
DEEPER WATER. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...WADE SIDEWAYS
PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL YOU ARE OUT OF ITS PULL.

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 11 PM CDT.

$$

TREXLER

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