[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTAE 111806
HLSTLH
FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ750-755-770-775-112200-

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

...BONNIE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND GETTING STRONGER...

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND COAST FROM THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER EAST TO THE MOUTH
OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER...

...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND COAST FROM THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER EAST TO THE MOUTH OF
THE SUWANNEE RIVER...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
WALTON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...BAY...JACKSON...CALHOUN...GULF...
GADSDEN...LIBERTY...FRANKLIN...LEON...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...
MADISON...TAYLOR...DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
FROM THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER EAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE
RIVER. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SAME PORTION OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER EAST TO THE
MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. THIS MEANS THAT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
THAT BONNIE COULD FURTHER INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THURSDAY
MORNING.


...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 356 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
CENTER OF BONNIE IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE GULF COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE
CENTER OF THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 9 AM CDT NEAR PANAMA
CITY BEACH. THE STORM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
INTO AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REGION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON TUESDAY WILL COMBINE
WITH THOSE EXPECTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO
CREATE VERY HIGH SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. AS BONNIE MOVES FROM THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE
AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
STORM TOTALS BY THURSDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 5
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
LOWER OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. THIS MUCH RAIN WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH BEYOND 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE
CENTER. THEREFORE...ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN BONNIE'S TRACK COULD SHIFT
THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE STRONGEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY AROUND 3 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL IMPACT AREAS
ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES OF THE PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE UP TO 5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE BAYS...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND
PANAMA CITY IN EAST BAY...NORTH BAY AND WEST BAY. ALSO ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

THE LOCAL TIDES FOR THURSDAY FOLLOW.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDES AT 142 AM AND 1221 PM...LOW TIDES AT 605 AM AND 751 PM.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDES AT 507 AM AND 1203 PM...LOW TIDES AT 807 PM AND 949 PM.

SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY...
HIGH TIDE AT 751 AM...LOW TIDE AT 710 PM.

SEAS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12 TO
15 FEET BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF
ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST.

...RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE BEACHES.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE BEACHES.

WIND...WAVE...AND TIDAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE
WATER.

ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL AND LOCAL OFFICIALS. BE
ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND UNGUARDED BEACHES. A
RIP CURRENT IS A STRONG NARROW CURRENT OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE
BEACH THROUGH THE SURF ZONE. IT CAN RAPIDLY CARRY A SWIMMER INTO
DEEPER WATER. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...WADE SIDEWAYS
PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL YOU ARE OUT OF ITS PULL.

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 5 PM CDT.

$$

WATSON
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