[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131721
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-131945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Areas affected...Parts of AL into middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 131721Z - 131945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a
tornado may increase into this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A remnant surface low is located over northern AR early
this afternoon. An occluded front extends east-northeast of the low
into western TN, then extends southeast as a stationary or warm
front across parts of northern/central AL into western GA. Farther
south, a cold front is moving across MS, with a surface trough/wind
shift noted to the east from western AL into southern MS.

In the vicinity of these boundaries, convection is gradually
increasing from western AL into southern middle TN, and a few cells
across northwest AL have exhibited some weak rotation. While
low-level flow/shear has gradually decreased as the remnant of
Tropical Cyclone Francine has weakened, effective SRH of around 100
m2/s2 and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will continue to favor
occasionally organized convection into this afternoon. MLCAPE will
increase to near or above 1000 J/kg, with an increase in convective
coverage expected with time within a weakly capped environment.

A few marginal supercells could evolve with time, and a tornado
cannot be ruled out, especially in a zone between the surface
trough/wind shift approaching from the west and the effective warm
front to the east, where low-level flow will remain locally backed
as gradual heating/destabilization continues. Otherwise, locally
damaging winds will be possible, especially if any localized
clustering of convection can develop with time.

..Dean/Gleason.. 09/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...

LAT...LON   32228565 31618689 31888728 32568749 34138797 34948822
            35448837 35718835 35898821 36088759 36108707 35658637
            33948592 32638572 32228565
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