[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 090029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090029
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-090130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...central and northern Arkansas...and western/Middle
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 090029Z - 090130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A band of severe/rotating storms from the Ozarks to far
eastern Oklahoma, and developing convection across the western
Tennessee area in soon-to-expire WW 209, will require new Tornado
Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest Springfield, MO (KSGF) radar loop shows a band
of severe/supercell storms moving across south-central Missouri and
northwestern Arkansas.  Meanwhile, convection is gradually
increasing farther east, across western Tennessee.

The airmass across this region remains very unstable, with
mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range.  This should be
more than sufficient to sustain vigorous updrafts, support CAM runs
which increase convective coverage over the next several hours.
Strong deep-layer winds will support organized convection, with an
all-hazards severe risk likely to continue through the evening and
into the overnight hours -- warranting new tornado watch issuance
across this region.

..Goss/Hart.. 05/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...

LAT...LON   36399273 36599029 36568440 35438492 34898810 34779015
            33939349 34739361 36399273
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