[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 291939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291938
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-292145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1726
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Areas affected...Lower middle Tennessee into northeast Alabama and
northern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291938Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging wind potential may materialize in
the next few hours across lower middle Tennessee into northeast
Alabama and northwest Georgia. Watch issuance is not currently
anticipated given an overall modest kinematic environment.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of poorly organized convection - driven by
the remnant outflow of an early-morning MCS across the lower OH
River Valley - has been percolating for much of the late
morning/early afternoon hours. Over the past 30-60 minutes, regional
reflectivity and velocity data has shown some tendency for
consolidating outflows and the development of a more coherent cold
pool to the south of the Nashville, TN area. This may be the start
of a loosely organized convective line that should propagate to the
southeast into parts of northeast AL and northern GA in the coming
hours along a diffuse buoyancy gradient. This cluster is currently
on the periphery of stronger flow aloft, but the KHPX and KOHX VWPs
are sampling 25-30 knot winds between 5-6 km, which may be
sufficient for similar effective bulk shear values given weak
low-level flow. These mid-level winds are expected to spread
southeast in tandem with the developing line, which may promote some
degree of organization and longevity of the line. Consequently, the
potential for damaging wind may increase in the next few hours if a
coherent line can become organized.

..Moore/Gleason.. 07/29/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35568771 35908776 36088729 36158658 35998604 35988587
            34858414 34668390 34418384 34108392 33808427 33728463
            33678503 33688555 33698611 33918650 35568771
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