[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091839
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-092045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

Areas affected...western/central Kentucky and adjacent portions of
southeastern Illinois/southern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 091839Z - 092045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for supercells posing a risk for tornadoes
appears likely to increase through 5-7 PM EDT, particularly near the
Ohio River from Evansville/Owensboro through the Greater Louisville
area.

DISCUSSION...Beryl's remnant surface low is currently in the process
of migrating east-northeastward across southeastern Missouri into
the lower Ohio Valley, with a zone of strengthening differential
surface heating becoming better defined near the Ohio River
downstream toward the Greater Cincinnati area.  South of this zone,
boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing, supported by both
insolation and slowly increasing moisture.  The increasingly buoyant
low-level environment is supporting the development of showers and
isolated to widely scattered weak thunderstorms, but this is
occurring beneath a notably warm and warming mid-level environment,
which will tend to slow, if not suppress, intensifying convective
development.

Into the 21-23Z time frame, in the peaking boundary-layer
instability, latest Rapid Refresh suggests that a relatively minimum
in mid-level inhibition may linger near the Ohio River, roughly from
Evansville IN/Owensboro Ky through the Greater Louisville area, near
the nose of the stronger southerly flow around 850 mb associated
with Beryl.  Although this jet streak is forecast to weak some,
speeds on the order of 30+ kt appear likely to still contribute to
sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, particularly along
or just south of the differential heating zone.

Given dynamic forcing associated with occasionally strengthening
low-level mesocyclones, and the near-surface buoyancy associated
with the high boundary-layer dew points (increasing to 75+ F),
low-level upward accelerations may become increasingly conducive to
tornadic potential in evolving supercell structures.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 07/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37748853 38258783 38588668 38588480 37518524 36938580
            36488720 36598814 37748853
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