[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271142
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-271415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0159
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kentucky...Northern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 271142Z - 271415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for marginally severe hail may develop over parts
of central and eastern Kentucky this morning. The magnitude of the
hail threat should remain too small for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a patch of
maximized mid-level moisture associated with a shortwave trough,
located across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing with this area ahead of the shortwave
trough over far southern Indiana, central Kentucky and middle
Tennessee. Mesoscale analysis in central Kentucky has MUCAPE
approaching 1000 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5
C/km range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in central Kentucky
have a steep temperature inversion from the surface to 850 mb, with
effective shear near 50 knots. This suggests some potential for a
couple elevated rotating storms capable of marginally severe hail.
The threat should continue into the mid to late morning as scattered
strong thunderstorms move eastward into eastern Kentucky.

..Broyles/Goss.. 02/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   37038276 36568302 36288350 36188420 36158519 36378584
            36848613 37508617 38078599 38438545 38508451 38398340
            38228295 37858265 37038276
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