[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 012215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012215
KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-012345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1791
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024

Areas affected...Central/eastern KY into southeast IN...southwest
OH...and northern TN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588...

Valid 012215Z - 012345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind will move eastward into
early evening. Downstream watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS currently moving across central KY
continues to show signs of organization, with a well-defined cold
pool and evidence of a relatively strong rear-inflow jet from
regional VWPs. However, recent measured gusts have generally been
subsevere, in the 35-45 kt range. While relatively weak low-level
flow and deep-layer shear may continue to limit severe-wind
potential to some extent, very warm, moist, and unstable downstream
conditions (with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) will continue to support
a threat of at least isolated damaging wind as this MCS continues
eastward into the early evening. As the MCS approaches the eastern
edge of WW 588, downstream watch issuance will be possible,
especially if there is any uptick in measured gusts and/or overall
organization and intensity of the system.

..Dean/Smith.. 08/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   39258548 39338447 38998333 38198274 36958326 36208445
            36258577 36438693 36638744 36938755 37318647 37978556
            39258548
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