[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061905
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-062130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower MS and TN Valleys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061905Z - 062130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring the area for increasing severe-storm potential
this afternoon. A watch issuance is possible for parts of the area
in the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts a band of
increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus along a
northeast/southwest-oriented quasi-stationary surface front/wind
shift from central AR into southeast OK. Isolated convective
initiation has recently occurred along this front. Ahead of this
activity, low-level lapse rates continue to diurnally steepen amid
rich pre-frontal boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 70s surface
dewpoints). While large-scale ascent is minimal across the area,
continued heating /destabilization amid the low-level frontal
circulation should support continued convective initiation along the
wind shift during the next hour or two given minimal warm-sector
convective inhibition. Additional convective initiation is possible
along differential heating zones over the warm sector as well.

A belt of moderate northwesterly midlevel flow over the frontal zone
(around 30 kt of effective shear) will support loosely organized
storms once updrafts become established/sustained. Locally damaging
gusts and marginally severe hail could accompany this initial
activity. With time, increasing outflow generation amid the
moist/well-mixed boundary layer should favor convective clustering
with southeastward extent. The primary concern with this convective
evolution will be severe gusts -- especially with any localized
upscale growth that evolves. Convective and environmental trends are
being monitored for a possible watch issuance this afternoon.

..Weinman/Kerr.. 09/06/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34329382 34099413 33669423 33319412 32979397 32719367
            32579330 32549269 32639169 33028956 33278864 33518820
            33858792 34698781 35168796 35458840 35548898 35518965
            35409036 35299094 35109176 34639314 34329382
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet