[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 250207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250207
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-250330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northwestern AL into Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 250207Z - 250330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of all hazards will
increase over portions of northwestern AL into Middle TN during the
next few hours. A watch issuance is likely before 0230Z.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS is tracking eastward across western TN into
northern MS, while northeastward-moving supercells are ongoing over
northern into central MS. As a large-scale trough evident in water
vapor imagery continues eastward this evening, the warm sector
(characterized by middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will spread eastward
into parts of western AL and Middle TN. At the same time, a
strengthening low-level jet will also shift eastward over the warm
sector, favoring a continuation of the severe storms with eastward
extent. Large/clockwise-turning hodographs (sampled by regional VWP)
will support organized storms including supercells (even if embedded
in a line) with a risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.
A watch will likely be issued for parts of this area before 0230Z.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/25/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33258829 34048822 34568815 35168797 35398767 35408714
            35268643 34888600 34468602 33848685 33118732 32838768
            32928829 33258829
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet