[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031615
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-031915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023

Areas affected...much of Kentucky...far southern Indiana...Middle
Tennessee...northern Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 60...

Valid 031615Z - 031915Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 60 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes will increase through the
afternoon, from near the Ohio River southward into northern Alabama
and eventually Georgia. Additional watches are likely later today
east of ongoing tornado watch #60.

DISCUSSION...A surface low near the IL/KY border will continue to
deepen today as it travels up the OH River Valley and near a warm
front. Areas of thunderstorms are ongoing near the low, with an
arcing line of cells extending south into northern AL. Breaks in the
clouds as well as strong southerly advection will continue to
destabilize the warm sector, with sufficient instability forecast to
support supercells with tornadoes by afternoon.

Limited instability near the warm front will be mitigated by very
strong lift combined with cooling aloft, and these height falls will
extend southward into Middle TN. Midlevel lapse rates will be
steeper beneath the midlevel wave, with the surface low track and
warm front zone being a favored area for tornadoes, some strong.
Initial convection near the low has periodically shown signs of
rotation.

Ongoing storms from middle TN into northwest AL will continue to
strengthen as well, aided by higher boundary-layer theta-e despite
being south of the midlevel jet core. Very strong shear is in place
across the entire region, favoring fast-moving supercells and
tornado threat.

..Jewell/Grams.. 03/03/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...
MEG...

LAT...LON   36428468 35868491 34948539 34468576 34208624 34088668
            33908755 33938806 34368795 35048787 35698784 36338797
            36708834 37168888 37648799 38208682 38438583 38408503
            38208447 37808423 37508425 37098435 36428468
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