[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010156
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-010330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0856 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Areas affected...Southern Middle TN...Northern AL...Far Northwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 010156Z - 010330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms across Middle Tennessee will
continue to spread southward toward northern Alabama. Convective
trends are being monitored for a possible downstream Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms are currently ongoing across
northern Middle Tennessee including near Nashville and the I-40
corridor as of 145z/845pm CDT. These storms, particularly on the
western flank, have access to robust instability, with the 00z
observed Nashville sounding sampling 4400 J/kg MLCAPE. However, a
slowly cooling boundary layer should lead to a gradual diminishing
intensity trend over the next couple of hours. The easternmost
storms/updrafts, in particular, are now showing a trend of warming
cloud tops and diminished updraft intensity. While the need for a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch southward across far southern Middle
Tennessee, northern Alabama, and possibly far northwest Georgia are
uncertain, short-term trends will continue to be monitored for that
possibility.

..Guyer/Hart.. 07/01/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35158747 35418557 34868545 34288631 34588759 35158747
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