[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 260043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260043
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-260145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...southern Tennessee into portions of western Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 260043Z - 260145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms upstream across northern MS and western TN
will likely persist with a risk for significant damaging winds and
hail. A new Watch is likely this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 0040 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
well-developed cluster of severe storms moving across portions of
western TN and northern MS. Ahead of these storms a broad unstable
warm-sector remains mostly inhibition free across southern TN and
western AL. Large buoyancy (3000+ j/kg of MLCAPE) and increasing
vertical shear (40 + kt) are likely to support continued maintenance
of the upstream cluster this evening. Hi-res guidance and reports of
damage across western TN lend strong credibility to an increasing
risk for damaging gusts (possibly 75+ mph) and hail into western AL
and possibly southern TN this evening. The main severe threat should
remain contained near/west of Interstate 65 to the east of which,
outflow from previous storms has resulted in some stabilization.
With the increasing risk for damaging winds and hail a new Severe
Thunderstorm watch is likely this evening.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/26/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33838846 35358820 35398772 35428731 35248695 34838678
            33938673 33318688 33028715 32828751 32708798 32598846
            33838846
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