[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251733
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-251900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern Tennessee into northern
Alabama and far northwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 251733Z - 251900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe potential is increasing across portions of the
Southeast. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though a couple
instances of large hail are also possible. Convective trends are
being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across portions of
southern TN into northern AL as convective temperatures (i.e. lower
90s F) are being reached. Surface temperatures in the lower to mid
70s F are supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. This buoyancy which may
foster relatively robust, initial updrafts that develop, either in
the free warm sector, or with a south-southwestward propagating cold
pool (in middle TN) in association with an approaching MCS. Given
the lack of stronger shear and upper support, the evolution of
severe potential remains somewhat uncertain. However, overall
thinking is that damaging gusts may accompany the southward-moving
MCS, with damaging gusts and perhaps an instance or two of large
hail accompanying the more isolated storms ahead of the MCS outflow.
Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch in the next few hours.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/25/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35008833 35938780 36418687 36448538 36348408 36178309
            35878247 35648250 35188327 34798410 34308519 33878620
            33668692 33648749 34008803 35008833
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