[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181133
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-181330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Areas affected...much of western into northwestern
Alabama...southern Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 181133Z - 181330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts will be possible as a broken line
of storms moves eastward into the area, but a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Numerous storms persist this morning over much of MS
and extending northward into western TN, with much of the activity
associated with a long-lived area of outflow. Instability remains
strongest over MS, but a moderately unstable air mass does exist
into western/southwestern AL where surface temperatures are warmer.

The primary risk with these storms will be strong to locally
damaging gusts, owing to the continuous storm regeneration along the
leading outflow. Given the moderate instability and moist air mass,
the larger clusters of storms may produce localized wind damage. The
hail threat should remain low with most of these storms owing to the
multicellular storm mode. Given the isolated nature of the expected
severe gusts, a watch is not currently expected.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 06/18/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34508842 34878834 35128801 35238755 35188701 34738669
            33838693 33158710 32938747 32768809 32768847 33348840
            34508842
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