[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 112322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112322
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-112345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0982
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Areas affected...southeast TN...northern AL...and northwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon

Valid 112322Z - 112345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and hail are
expected to spread southeast into northern Alabama, southeast
Tennessee and northwest Georgia this evening. A severe thunderstorm
watch will likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms over Middle TN
are expected to continue to spread southeast into northern
AL/northwest GA over the next few hours. Some modest increase in
vertical shear is expected through evening, amid moderate
instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Semi-discrete cells will pose a
risk for large hail given lengthening hodographs with time. A modest
low-level jet is also forecast to increase to around 25-30 kt this
evening, and some upscale development into bowing/forward
propagating clusters. An attendant increase in damaging wind
potential will accompany convection in this scenario. A severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon for portions of the
MCD area.

..Leitman/Hart.. 06/11/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35038807 35338656 35348646 35338511 35248452 34928444
            34338452 34018482 33858578 33858593 33788628 33738711
            33888787 34048821 35038807
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