[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211906
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-212100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1666
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Areas affected...Southern Middle and Western Tennessee...northern
Alabama...and northwestern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 211906Z - 212100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat to continue downstream of WW535. A
watch will likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to move eastward through the
Memphis metro as of 1845Z. Trends in high-res guidance have been to
continue this line eastward into portions of Middle Tennessee,
western Tennessee, northern Alabama, and northern Georgia through
the evening.  This is further supported by daytime heating with
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s ahead of the line and MLCAPE
around 1500-2000 J/kg. Ahead of the main line, a few more discrete
storms are beginning to develop. These will also be capable of
damaging down burst winds, given the hot and unstable air mass and
weak shear profiles. A watch will likely be needed soon.

..Thornton/Hart.. 07/21/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35218506 35158501 34978495 34898495 34658498 34538500
            34378510 34268518 34208531 34188537 34108552 34018571
            33968593 33928625 33888648 33838684 33848712 33888735
            33948760 34058785 34218818 34328829 34628838 35048833
            35228830 35378830 35528825 35638810 35798761 35888680
            35808629 35678580 35428531 35308515 35218506
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