[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 201651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201651
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-201815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1642
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...MO Bootheel into parts of TN and southern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 201651Z - 201815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and isolated hail may
persist this afternoon, though coverage and intensity remain
somewhat uncertain. Watch issuance remains possible.

DISCUSSION...At 1645 UTC, a small bowing storm cluster is ongoing
across western KY, with other storms gradually increasing in
coverage ahead of this cluster into northern middle TN, and also
farther west toward the MO Bootheel. This convection is ongoing in
advance of a weakening storm cluster and remnant MCV across southern
MO.

The small bowing cluster has produced several reports of wind
damage, but other storms have generally remained sub-severe thus
far. Downstream of the ongoing storms, very rich low-level moisture
is supporting MLCAPE of greater than 2500 J/kg (away from outflow),
with midlevel westerly flow of 40-50 kt (as noted on regional VWPs)
providing sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization.
However, with strongly veered low-level flow, potential for
additional storm development into the more unstable environment
remains uncertain. The greatest short-term threat will likely
continue to be with the ongoing bowing cluster, which has grown some
in size over the last 30-60 minutes.

Depending on short-term trends regarding storm intensity and
coverage, watch issuance remains possible for parts of the region
this afternoon.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/20/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36388976 36748798 37208741 37068625 36548512 36348489
            35598491 35378506 35138537 35708731 36068908 36188996
            36388976
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