[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 182001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182000
TNZ000-KYZ000-182130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southwestern KY into western and Middle TN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510...511...

Valid 182000Z - 182130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510, 511
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-wind risk continues with an
east-southeastward-moving MCS over southwestern KY into western and
Middle TN this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An MCS extending from southwestern KY through Middle
into western TN is tracking east-southward, with a forward motion
around 40 kt at the apex of the bow. Several wind-damage reports and
gusts as high as 60-70 mph have occurred with this activity. While
weak low-level flow and veered surface winds (per regional VWP an
surface obs) may be limiting the intensity of this system to an
extent, a feed of strongly unstable surface-based inflow (lower 90s
temperatures and middle/upper 70s dewpoints) should continue
supporting the maintenance of this system given a well-established
cold pool. 40-50-kt midlevel west-northwesterly winds sampled by
regional VWP should also support continued organization --
especially for the northern portion of the MCS where shear vectors
are oriented perpendicular to the gust front. This
forward-propagating segment of the line should pose the greatest
severe-wind risk in the near-term.

Along the western segment of the MCS in western TN, a local
extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510 may be warranted as
damaging-wind risk continues southward.

..Weinman.. 07/18/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36068889 36018926 35948948 35628946 35338937 35118906
            35068843 35238763 35518688 35788624 36308582 36758566
            37318574 37508602 37608649 37658694 37628725 37518735
            37438745 37318746 37208739 36908728 36578737 36358763
            36198821 36118856 36068889
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