[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021516
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-021645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Areas affected...northeast MS...northern/north-central AL...southern
Middle and eastern TN...far northwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 021516Z - 021645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
gradually increase over the next couple of hours. Clusters/bands of
storms will be capable of producing damaging gusts and hail.

DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms is ongoing late this morning
across parts of northern MS. This activity is expected to gradually
increase in coverage as convection spreads east/northeast through
midday. Mostly clear skies downstream from current convection is
allowing for rapid warming, with temperatures already in the 80s.
Surface dewpoints mostly in the low/mid 70s beneath modest midlevel
lapse rates (near 7 C/km) are aiding in moderate destabilization,
with MLCAPE values around 2500-3500 J/kg expected to develop
eastward across the MCD area by early afternoon. Vertical shear
decreases with southward extent over the region, but effective shear
magnitudes around 25-35 kt will be more than sufficient for
organized bands/clusters of storms. Steepening low-level lapse rates
and high PW values amid strong instability will support damaging
wind potential. Additionally, 30-40 kt southwesterly flow in the 3-6
km layer, coupled with large instability/steep midlevel lapse rates
suggest at least an isolated large hail threat will accompany more
intense semi-discrete convection. A severe thunderstorm watch will
likely be needed for portions of the area in the next 1-2 hours.
Additionally, a small southward expansion of the Slight risk area
will be included with the 1630z Day 1 Convective Outlook.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/02/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33548645 33228742 33148865 33318963 33548993 33929001
            34248987 34728898 35058820 36008575 36148486 36058449
            35928427 35578417 35288428 34768468 34338504 33548645
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