[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011628
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-011800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1369
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern AR...southern MO/IL...into
western KY/TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 011628Z - 011800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase through early
afternoon across portions of the Ozarks to the Mid-Mississippi/Lower
Ohio Valleys. Damaging gusts and large hail will be possible with
thunderstorm activity through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An expansive, increasingly agitated cumulus field is
noted in visible satellite imagery late this morning from northern
Arkansas into southern Missouri toward the confluence of the
Ohio/Mississippi Rivers. Latest objective mesoanalysis data suggests
low-level inhibition has quickly eroded as strong heating occurred
through the morning hours, and temperatures have rapidly warmed into
the low 90s. Generally 70s F dewpoints are contributing to
increasing destabilization, with MLCAPE values ranging from
1500-3500 J/kg across the region. These factors will likely result
in somewhat early convective initiation across the region ahead of a
midlevel shortwave impulse now entering southwest MO.

Bulk effective shear from 25-35 kt will allow for organized
cells/clusters. Given relatively modest midlevel flow, some upscale
development may occur via consolidating outflows via storm
interactions and/or generation of a sufficient cold pool. If this
occurs, a bowing line of convection may shift generally east across
western KY/TN. If a well organized bow emerges, the risk for more
widespread damaging (and possibly isolated significant gusts) would
increase. However, this scenario remains rather uncertain.
Nevertheless, thunderstorm clusters will still be capable of
severe/damaging gusts given strong instability and steep low-level
lapse rates. Current thinking for convective evolution aligns more
with CAM solutions from the NSSL/ARW rather than the HRRR, as the
former solutions appear to have a better handle on current observed
trends. While some uncertainty exists regarding timing and aerial
extent, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the
next hour or so.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/01/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35588774 35158912 35049047 35219171 35729282 36559318
            37039294 37429236 37879081 38238940 38128822 37808751
            37068671 36518671 35588774
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