[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 100040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100039
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern Alabama into middle and
eastern Tennessee and southeast Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 715...

Valid 100039Z - 100215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 715 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 715.
Damaging gusts appear to be the main threat, though a couple of
tornadoes remain possible, especially with storms closer to the
TN/AL border. The severe threat may persist eastward into northeast
AL and southeastern TN, where a WW issuance may ultimately be
warranted.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently been merging into a loosely
organized squall line across middle TN into eastern MS and far
northwest AL, with MRMS mosaic radar data showing these storms
percolating in intensity. Low-level shear should remain strong
across the region as a 35+ kt low-level jet overspreads the TN
Valley (per 00Z mesoanalysis). Given linear storm modes, damaging
gusts should become the primary threat into the evening hours.
However, a few discrete cells remain near the AL/TN border, and
these storms have the best chance at producing a couple of tornadoes
into early tonight.

Despite waning buoyancy, the strong deep-layer and low-level shear
should compensate amid 500 J/kg MLCAPE to support some continuance
of severe potential into northeast AL and southeastern TN. Though
damaging gusts may be the main threat, given linear structures, the
elongated and curved hodographs suggest that some tornado potential
will also exist. A downstream Tornado Watch issuance may ultimately
be needed.

..Squitieri/Goss.. 12/10/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34378796 35988651 37368486 37398428 37028414 36598432
            36248415 35908404 35458433 35188466 34958538 34608601
            34298647 34378796
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