[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 132149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132149
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-132245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1985
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern and central AL...into southern
TN and northwest GA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 641...

Valid 132149Z - 132245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 641
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts should continue across WW641
this afternoon. Storms may continue farther south and east where a
new weather watch is possible, but uncertain.

DISCUSSION...As of 2135 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a linear
cluster of storms ongoing across portions of the TN Valley. Over the
last  couple of hours, several reports of damaging gusts have been
received with gusty outflow winds from these storms. The environment
ahead of these storms remains strongly unstable, with 3000+ J/kg of
MLCAPE, but only weak vertical shear. So far storms have been
semi-organized along a propagating cold pool. Weak shear balance and
the favorable buoyancy should allow for strong updrafts and damaging
gust potential to continue across north-central AL and portions of
southern TN over the next couple of hours.

Farther south, uncertainty on the severe risk is higher as
additional storms have resulted in some overturning of the air mass
west of Atlanta into central AL. Outflow temperatures have dropped
into the upper 70s F, which may limit the potential for stronger
updrafts as the cluster moves south/southeast later this evening. If
storms are able to retain strength as they move into the cooler air,
as suggested by several HRRR runs, damaging gusts would be possible
into parts of central AL and western GA. Convective trends will be
monitored but it is unclear if a new weather watch is needed farther
south.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/13/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35428635 36058538 36028466 35718457 35338456 34988457
            34598462 34098474 33598494 33408505 33258532 33198566
            33258614 33328649 33458710 33658756 33798782 33958811
            34158819 34448816 34708786 34958738 35208676 35428635
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