[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251621
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251621
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-251845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1899
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022

Areas affected...much of eastern Mississippi into western and
northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 251621Z - 251845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to gradually increase in intensity
along a cold front, with sporadic wind damage and couple tornadoes
possible.

DISCUSSION...A north-south oriented line of storms currently extends
from the MO Bootheel into western TN, and due south across the
middle of MS. While northern parts of this line are surging quickly
northeastward coincident with the shortwave trough, southern
portions of the line are moving slower toward the east. Recently,
lightning has been observed over central MS where MLCAPE remains
below 1000 J/kg.

Surface observations show warming over southern MS with temperatures
in the upper 70s to near 80 F, and this degree of warming may be
needed for surface-based inflow parcels initially.
With time, a few cells along the front may become severe, with
sections of QLCS possible. Large scale lift is more favorable
farther north, but low-level convergence along the front should be
enough to initiate new storms later today given robust moisture.
Large looping hodographs with 0-1 SRH to 300 m2/s2 will clearly
favor rotation, with a conditional threat of brief tornadoes and
corridors of damaging winds.

The slow eastward movement of the line, coupled with diurnal
considerations, do appear favorable for a discrete supercell or two
later this afternoon, most notably where southern portions of the
line interact with the stronger MLCAPE. Though models differ on
storm coverage, any discrete supercells in this high shear
environment could result in an isolated strong tornado within a
relatively narrow zone.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32598955 33388937 34118920 34688917 35088880 35118802
            35058731 34808696 34318691 33418712 32228754 31758798
            31378859 31358931 31368957 31908959 32598955
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