[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121839
TNZ000-KYZ000-122045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1864
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Areas affected...Western/Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 121839Z - 122045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for isolated damaging wind gusts exists this
afternoon across western and middle TN.

DISCUSSION...Recent NQA radar imagery samples the outflow emerging
from the line of storms moving into the Mid-South well, particularly
west of Memphis. Much of the activity south and west of Memphis
appears to be behind this outflow, while some scattered
thunderstorms remain in place ahead of it across northwestern TN.
The airmass downstream of this outflow in northwest TN is slowly
destabilizing amid filtered daytime heating. Modest destabilization
has already taken place across middle TN, where temperatures are
slightly lower than those over northwest TN but dewpoints are
higher.

Potential exists for storms to strength as they interact with the
eastward-progressing outflow amid modest air mass destabilization.
Westerly 0-3 km bulk shear is oriented perpendicular to the ongoing
outflow, suggesting potential for development of a more
forward-propagating/bowing line segment capable of damaging wind
gusts. Any severe potential will likely remain limited due to the
only modest destabilization downstream, but convective trends are
being monitored closely.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 10/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35258994 36128898 36648826 36858738 36478670 35338721
            35088803 35068931 35258994
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