[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261537
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261536
TNZ000-ALZ000-261730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0924
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Areas affected...Central/northern AL into Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 261536Z - 261730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may gradually intensify through the morning
into early afternoon. Locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two will be possible with the strongest storms.
Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing this morning across northwest
into west-central AL, along/ahead of a cold front and in advance of
the deep-layer cyclone moving across the Ozark Plateau. Rather
strong wind fields attendant to the cyclone are in place across the
region. Recent VWPs from KHTX and KBMX depict favorable wind
profiles for organized convection, with moderate deep-layer shear
and 0-1 km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2.

The primary uncertainty regarding the severe threat across this area
is the generally limited instability. Extensive cloudiness will
likely be maintained as cirrus continues to stream northward from
convection near the Gulf Coast, but a slight uptick in available
buoyancy is possible by late morning/early afternoon, if any
filtered insolation can be realized.

Any sustained organized storms would pose at least some threat for
all severe hazards across the region, though the coverage and
magnitude of the threat may be limited by generally weak
instability. Watch issuance is possible, depending on short-term
trends regarding storm intensity and downstream destabilization.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34058786 35278789 36498774 36578745 36588657 36488573
            35408584 34678592 33848609 32498680 32318747 32478817
            34058786
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