[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 220018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220018
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-220215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0865
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas into the Missouri bootheel and
western Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257...

Valid 220018Z - 220215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds will increase across
western Tennessee over the next 1-2 hours as a bowing segment
approaches the area.

DISCUSSION...Imagery from KQNA continues to show a balanced MCS with
a pronounced bowing segment moving across northeast AR towards the
MS River. A couple of wind damage reports and a 62 mph wind gust
have been noted with this bow over the past 60 minutes, and this
line should maintain intensity as it crosses the MS River. Ahead of
the line across northwest TN, a theta-e gradient is noted draped
across the region denoting the edge of a residual cold pool. Higher
MLCAPE values are analyzed to the south of this boundary where
temperatures remain in the low 80s. It is unclear exactly how the
bowing segment will interact with the cold pool, but a southeastward
progression along the outflow boundary/instability gradient is
possible. This may shift the highest wind threat from far northwest
TN into west-central TN over the next couple of hours.

To the southwest across central AR, additional training cells on the
southwestern edge of the MCS and along the cold front are noted, but
are quickly becoming undercut by a southward surging outflow from
the MCS. Thunderstorms may maintain intensity north of the outflow
given ample MUCAPE, but will largely pose a severe hail threat.

..Moore.. 05/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   36279080 36619071 36578993 36498918 36448837 36278788
            35728796 35378818 35108864 35038956 35079027 35169086
            35399148 35689171 35929117 36279080
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