[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 052351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052350
TNZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-060115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0667
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CDT Thu May 05 2022

Areas affected...portions of eastern Tennessee into extreme
southeast Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052350Z - 060115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts or marginally severe hailstones
may accompany the stronger, longer lasting storms. A WW issuance
appears unlikely at this time given the short term, isolated nature
of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms continue to
show transient periods of large hail production and damaging gusts
per MRMS mosaic and KOHX radar data. The surface airmass ahead of
the storms is characterized by upper 70s/low 80s F temperatures and
dewpoints around 60 F. Given the presence of a relatively mixed
boundary layer and low-level lapse rates, storms may maintain their
intensity to produce a couple of damaging gusts/instances of
marginally severe hail until sunset. Thereafter, storms should
weaken with nocturnal cooling/boundary-layer decoupling. As such, a
WW issuance does not appear likely given the short-term duration of
the isolated severe threat.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 05/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   35538590 36538552 36898503 36938460 36798373 36578327
            36378293 36028302 35698343 35398406 35238449 35268492
            35538590
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