[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 051853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051852
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-052045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Thu May 05 2022

Areas affected...Parts of western and middle TN...southwest KY...and
far northwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 051852Z - 052045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated to widely scattered severe
thunderstorms may be increasing this afternoon, and watch issuance
will be possible.

DISCUSSION...To the south of a lifting warm front currently draped
across parts of KY, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer
(middle/upper 60s dewpoints spreading northward) beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates is resulting in a moderately unstable airmass.
Regional VWP data shows around 50 kt of midlevel southwesterly flow
overspreading south-southwesterly low-level flow -- supporting
elongated hodographs with modest low-level veering profiles. Surface
pressure falls and related low-level confluence is favoring isolated
convective development across parts of western and middle TN, and
this activity may increase in intensity and coverage this afternoon.
The primary concern will be locally damaging gusts and isolated
large hail with northward spreading clusters, though a brief tornado
will also be possible owing to near 100 m2/s2 effective SRH. Watch
issuance will be possible this afternoon.

..Weinman/Smith.. 05/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36448854 36698829 36978770 37008710 36848634 36478612
            35968615 35278668 34928739 34958807 35218875 35538891
            35908883 36188875 36448854
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