[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 302232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302232
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-310000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0360
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Areas affected...Western Kentucky...southern Illinois...and
southwest Indiana.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 79...

Valid 302232Z - 310000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 79 continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind and brief tornado threat will transition
to primarily a damaging wind threat.

DISCUSSION...A strongly forced squall line continues east across
watch 79. The PAH VWP shows very strong 0-1km SRH in excess of 600
m2/s2. This has resulted in several mesovorticies to develop along
the squall line. However, limited instability seems to have lessened
the longevity of any of these mesovorticies. Dewpoints are still in
the upper 50s ahead of the line which could be sufficient for a few
QLCS tornadoes in the next hour or two. However, dewpoints in the
eastern portions of the watch are near 50F with only modest
increases expected in the next 1 to 2 hours. Therefore, considering
the very strong low-level jet (in excess of 80 knots per the PAH
VWP), damaging wind gusts will remain a threat along the squall
line. However, the tornado threat will likely lessen across eastern
portions of the watch. A damaging wind threat may persist north and
east of watch 79, which could necessitate a downstream watch.
However, lightning has reduced significantly along northern portions
of the line which could indicate earlier weakening of the line.
Therefore, storm trends will likely be monitored over the next hour
or so before any decisions on a downstream watch are made.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 03/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38578894 38978823 39228735 39238627 38228586 37008590
            36608641 36488753 36518849 36608887 37048905 37788917
            38578894
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