[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011858
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-012030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Areas affected...Much of the Lower Ohio Valley Region.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 011858Z - 012030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few multicell storm clusters are possible this afternoon
and evening with a threat for damaging winds and marginally severe
hail. A watch appears unlikely, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop in an uncapped airmass
across the Lower Ohio Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates in the
region (5.5 to 6 C/km) is a primary limiting factor to more robust
updraft development in an environment with 1250 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE
(per SPC mesoanalysis). These storms are forming on the periphery of
the stronger mid-level flow with effective shear around 20 to 30
knots which could support some multicell clusters. However, the poor
lapse rate environment amid only marginally favorable shear should
limit the overall severe weather threat from this activity.

Therefore, a few strong to severe storms may occur, but the threat
is not expected to be widespread enough to warrant a watch.

..Bentley/Kerr.. 06/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

LAT...LON   36898930 38518792 40138515 40558409 39988258 38788382
            36968713 36378842 36388948 36898930
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