[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 212020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212020
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-212145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Areas affected...southern Arkansas...northeastern
Louisiana...central and northern parts of Mississippi and
Alabama...and southern Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 212020Z - 212145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are forecast to increase in coverage from southern
Arkansas to portions of the Tennessee Valley area, accompanied by
severe risk which may necessitate WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows a cluster of
rapidly developing, vigorous storms over west-central Arkansas, and
towering cumulus extending eastward/east-northeastward along the
front across southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, northwestern
Alabama, and into Middle Tennessee.  The very moist boundary layer
south of the front has -- due to strong insolation/diurnal heating
-- become strongly unstable, with mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to
5000 J/kg range.

While deep-layer flow remains fairly weak area-wide, southerlies at
low levels topped by northerlies above roughly 3 to 4 km suggests
potential for southward propagation of storms as they grow upscale.
This -- combined with the extremely warm/moist/unstable environment
-- would suggest potential for more widespread wind-damage risk,
which warrants WW consideration over the next hour or two.

..Goss/Hart.. 07/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34589364 34229151 34519007 35408642 35328573 33068559
            32748638 32559050 32949218 33849348 34589364
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