[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 012354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012353
TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-020100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

Areas affected...eastern Tennessee...northern Alabama...and
northwestern Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 4...

Valid 012353Z - 020100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for locally severe storms -- including potential for
a tornado or two -- continues.  New WW will likely be issued within
the hour, given the scheduled 02/01Z expiration of WW 004.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken band comprised of
several strong/severe storms, extending from northwestern Alabama to
eastern portions of Middle Tennessee.  While the persistently warm
mid-level temperatures/weak mid-level lapse rates remain a
hindrance, very strong shear -- 0-1km shear observed at 41 kt and
mid-level flow west-southwesterly at 90 kt per the latest KHTX
WSR-88D VWP -- will continue to support organized/rotating storms
despite the thermodynamic deficiencies.

As a result, expect severe potential to continue -- and gradually
expand eastward with time into areas east of WW 004.  As the watch
nears its scheduled expiration, a new Tornado Watch will be issued
to extend from the ongoing severe convection over Middle Tennessee
eastward across Tennessee and northwestern Georgia.

..Goss.. 01/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36528312 36148312 35358403 34318461 34268538 34358791
            34808744 35858534 36528312
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