[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011957
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-012130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

Areas affected...Northern MS into Far Northern AL and Southern
Middle TN.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...4...5...

Valid 011957Z - 012130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3, 4, 5 continues.

SUMMARY...Development of a few discrete supercells capable of
producing tornadoes and damaging wind gusts possible from northern
MS into far northern AL and southern middle TN.

DISCUSSION...Recent observations suggest the outflow boundary moving
through western TN has become less defined near the TN/MS border,
suggesting that much of warm sector across northern MS and adjacent
northern AL/southern middle TN will likely stay free from the
influence of this boundary. Additionally, the amount and intensity
of the warm sector cells has continued to increase, with several
cells producing lightning over the past hour. This development is
occurring within an environment characterized by warm and moist
low-levels and strong vertical shear. Recent GWX VAD also sampled
300 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Expectation is for the
storms currently in northern MS to organize/intensify further as
they continue northeastward into a more sheared downstream
environment.

..Mosier.. 01/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34448758 34058839 33338903 33319011 33649036 34169027
            34988905 35478744 35568622 34788613 34448758
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