[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 152207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152206
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-160000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1867
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Areas affected...northern MS...southwest TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 152206Z - 160000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Forecast soundings show hodographs enlarging over the next
2-3 hours between 5pm to 7-8pm.  An isolated risk for a tornado may
accompany the stronger storms.  The threat for damaging gusts will
likely concentrate near the RFD of any supercells or downdraft
surges with bowing segments.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a linear cluster of storms over
eastern AR expected to cross the MS River over the next 1-2 hours.
Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s near Memphis and
cooler rain-cooled air (low to mid 70s F) is located over northern
MS.

KNQA (Memphis, TN) WSR-88D VAD shows a largely unidirectional
southwesterly wind profile with flow increasing with height to
around 60 kt at 6 km AGL.  Both RAP and NAM forecast soundings
indicate the hodograph size will increase over the next few hours as
flow strengthens in the boundary layer and 700-mb flow increases
from 25 kt as of 5pm CDT to 35-40 kt by 7-8pm CDT.  As large-scale
forcing for ascent strengthens with the approach of the mid-upper
trough, expecting a severe risk to continue to the east and
southeast of severe thunderstorm watch #527 (into parts of northern
MS).  Damaging gusts will be the primary concern with the stronger
storms but a tornado threat may increase coincident with the
hodograph enlargement.

..Smith/Guyer.. 10/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   34779056 35718951 35688801 34918807 34388868 34289033
            34779056
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