[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251929
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Areas affected...far northern Mississippi into Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 251929Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat of severe storms including tornadoes will
increase by late afternoon into Middle Tennessee and persist through
the evening. A watch may be issued by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis currently shows a warm front into far
southwestern TN extending east/southeast into northern AL.
Meanwhile, another warm front extended from the developing surface
low from southern IL into central KY.

In between these two fronts, gradual warming is taking place, with
temperatures now into the low 70s F. MUCAPE currently remains below
1000 J/kg as a result of dewpoints near 60 F.

Strengthening 850 mb winds out of the southwest later today should
aid moisture advection out of MS into Middle TN, with areas of
heating helping to destabilize as well. Shear will become
increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells in the 21-03Z time
frame, and a few tornadoes are anticipated as the mid 60s F
dewpoints arrive later today. With the more unstable air in place,
effective SRH may reach 400-500 m2/s2.

..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35048892 35238887 35668872 36178799 36478647 36318583
            36008560 35548590 35368661 35378741 35278780 34998804
            34718875 34798891 35048892
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet