[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010027
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-010200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0140
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas through northern Mississippi and
into Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 13...

Valid 010027Z - 010200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 13 continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will continue for a few more hours
within tornado watch 13.

DISCUSSION...Storms have struggled to produce much wind damage up to
this point. As the boundary layer cools, the favorable window for
damaging wind will diminish within a few hours. The most organized
cluster of storms is currently north of Memphis, but a sagging
outflow boundary from earlier convection continues to rush ahead of
this convection and has likely resulted in it remaining somewhat
elevated, limiting the overall threat. Some threat will remain,
especially south of this outflow boundary, where storms will likely
be more surface based and have a better chance of producing damaging
winds.

Another area of favorable conditions exists in north-central
Tennessee. A supercell, west of Nashville has exhibited consistent
low to mid-level rotation for the last 30 minutes or so. This cell
will likely be undercut by the southward moving cold front within
the next 30 minutes, but additional convection to the southwest, and
more discrete cells trying to develop may pose a threat for damaging
wind or a tornado or two in the next 1 to 2 hours. The 00Z BNA RAOB
shows MLCAPE around 700 J/kg with effective SRH around 270 m2/s2
showing the environment is currently supportive for damaging winds
and a tornado or two. However, as the boundary layer cools,
inhibition is expected to increase in the next 1 to 2 hours and
mitigate the overall threat.

..Bentley.. 03/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34009333 35169088 36488810 36678713 36688642 36628624
            35678627 35318692 33709086 33409193 33449313 34009333
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet