[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281349
KYZ000-TNZ000-281545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Areas affected...far northwest Tennessee into southwest Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281349Z - 281545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with storms ongoing
over northwest Tennessee into southwest Kentucky over the next
couple hours.

DISCUSSION...An east/west oriented band of storms is currently
ongoing near a warm front, and situated near the northeastern extent
of the 500 J/kg MUCAPE axis where dewpoints have risen into the 60s
F.

While instability is not particularly strong, shear is quite
favorable for supercells and potentially tornadoes with effective
SRH (most of it concentrated in the lowest 1 km) over 300 m2/s2. The
12Z BNA sounding depicts a favorable hodograph, but meager buoyancy.
Modifying this sounding for a surface temperature closer to 70 F
would produce more favorable low-level buoyancy.

In the near term, a cell or two may strengthen within the ongoing
band of storms, with either damaging gusts or a brief tornado
possible.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 02/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36378800 36148913 36238933 36358937 36628903 36918843
            37428658 37238624 36978630 36628693 36378800
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